Business
Nigeria’s Average Oil Output Rose by 7% to 1.65mbpd in 2025
Nigeria’s average crude oil production, including condensates, rose by 7 percent year-on-year to 1.652 million barrels per day (bpd) in the first 11 months of 2025, up from 1.544 million bpd recorded in the same period of 2024.
Data from the Nigerian Upstream Petroleum Regulatory Commission (NUPRC) showed that, despite the improvement, the country fell short of its 2025 budget production target of 2.06 million bpd. Nigeria also missed key fiscal assumptions on oil price and exchange rate, failing to meet the benchmark of $75 per barrel and the exchange rate projection of ₦1,400 to the dollar.
On a month-on-month basis, crude output stood at 1.599 million bpd in November 2025, a slight increase from 1.597 million bpd in October.
Findings indicated that the production shortfall influenced the Federal Government’s decision to adopt more conservative assumptions in the 2026 budget. While the 2025 budget set an ambitious output target of 2.06 million bpd, the government has adjusted its projections for 2026 to a crude oil price of $64.85 per barrel, daily production of 1.84 million barrels, and an average exchange rate of ₦1,400 to the dollar.
Presenting the 2026 budget, President Bola Ahmed Tinubu said the spending plan, themed “Budget of Consolidation, Renewed Resilience and Shared Prosperity,” is aimed at stabilising the economy, strengthening competitiveness, and ensuring that growth translates into jobs, higher incomes, and improved living standards.
The President noted that oil production has improved due to enhanced security, increased use of technology, and ongoing sector reforms, while non-oil revenues have expanded through improved tax administration. He added that rising investor confidence has led to increased capital inflows and stronger private sector participation, with Nigeria’s external reserves reaching a seven-year high of about $47 billion, providing more than 10 months of import cover.
Business
CBN Grants National Operating Licences to Opay, Moniepoint, Palmpay, Others
The Central Bank of Nigeria has approved the upgrade of operating licences for several leading fintech firms and microfinance banks, including Opay and Moniepoint, elevating them to national status and authorising full-scale operations across the country.
The licence upgrade also covers other major players such as Kuda Bank, Palmpay and Paga, whose rapid expansion through digital platforms and extensive agent networks has effectively pushed them beyond the limits of their former regional licences.
Confirming the development in Lagos at the annual conference of the Committee of Heads of Banks’ Operations, the Director of the Other Financial Institutions Supervision Department, Yemi Solaja, said the affected institutions had met the regulatory conditions required for nationwide operations.
“In practice, institutions like Moniepoint MFB, Opay, Kuda Bank and others are already operating nationally. The upgrade simply aligns their licences with the reality of their operations,” Solaja said.
He stressed the need for stronger physical presence and customer support structures, noting that most users of fintech services operate within the informal sector and require accessible points of contact to resolve complaints and disputes.
With the new national licences, the fintech firms will now be subject to stricter regulatory obligations, including higher capital requirements—set at N5 billion for national microfinance banks—and the establishment of offices dedicated to customer engagement and dispute resolution, while sustaining their role in deepening financial inclusion.
The move follows earlier enforcement actions by the apex bank, including fines of N1 billion each imposed on Moniepoint and Opay in 2024 over lapses in Know-Your-Customer compliance, reflecting the CBN’s continued push to strengthen governance and standards in Nigeria’s digital finance ecosystem.
Business
Dangote Group, EIL Seal $350m Deal to Expand Lagos Refinery
Dangote Group has sealed a $350 million partnership with Indian engineering firm, Engineers India Limited (EIL), to significantly expand its refinery and petrochemical operations in Lagos.
Under the agreement, the expansion project will raise the refinery’s processing capacity from 650,000 barrels per day to 1.4 million barrels per day, positioning the facility as one of the largest single-site refinery complexes in the world.
The deal also covers major petrochemical upgrades, including a substantial increase in polypropylene production to about 2.4 million tonnes per annum, further strengthening the group’s downstream industrial footprint.
Located in the Lekki Free Zone, the Dangote Refinery represents a major turning point for Nigeria’s energy sector, marking a shift from heavy dependence on imported petroleum products towards domestic refining, self-sufficiency, and export of refined fuels and petrochemicals.
Business
Nigeria’s US Crude Oil Imports Surge to 42.13m Barrels in 10 Months
Nigeria’s crude oil imports from the United States rose sharply to 42.13 million barrels within the first ten months of 2025, reflecting a significant shift in the country’s crude supply pattern and refinery feedstock strategy.
Data obtained from the United States Energy Information Administration show that between January and October 2025, Nigeria imported more than 42 million barrels of US crude, a steep increase from the 15.79 million barrels recorded over the same period in 2024. The development represents a year-on-year growth of about 167 per cent, largely driven by rising demand from domestic refineries, particularly the Dangote Petroleum Refinery.
By contrast, Nigeria’s crude imports from the US in 2024 were unstable, failing to exceed four million barrels for much of the year and plunging to as low as 1.04 million barrels in June. The volatility highlighted supply and operational challenges during that period.
Although Nigeria recorded no US crude imports in January 2025, volumes picked up in February at 3.11 million barrels, slightly below the 3.61 million barrels imported in February 2024. Imports climbed further in March to 5.25 million barrels, compared with about 1.83 million barrels in the corresponding month of the previous year.
The EIA data showed continued momentum as Nigeria imported 3.79 million barrels in May 2025—an increase of 1.71 million barrels year-on-year—before surging to 9.16 million barrels in June. Imports eased slightly in July at 4.17 million barrels, marginally above July 2024 levels, followed by 6.24 million barrels in August. September and October both recorded steady inflows of 4.19 million barrels each.
Industry analysts, quoted by Petroleumprice.ng, attributed the rising import volumes to Nigeria’s growing requirement for crude oil feedstock as privately owned refineries scale up operations. They noted that with over 42 million barrels already imported within ten months, Nigeria’s intake of US crude has nearly tripled compared to the previous year, with the likelihood of further increases if the current trend continues.
The analysts also pointed to a gradual ramp-up in crude intake at the Dangote Petroleum Refinery, where US light sweet crude has become a preferred option due to its compatibility with complex refining processes.
Commenting on the trend, petroleum economist, Prof. Wumi Iledare, described the surge in imports as a structural shift with wide-ranging macroeconomic and sectoral implications. He said the ultimate impact on the Nigerian economy would depend on exchange rate dynamics, efficiency in domestic crude allocation, and the level of refinery utilisation.
According to him, crude oil imports could influence petroleum product prices and inflation primarily through the exchange rate channel. He noted that if macroeconomic stability is sustained and refineries operate at high utilisation levels, the development could support output growth, income generation, and employment. However, he cautioned that failure to address domestic crude pricing and allocation constraints could deepen Nigeria’s dependence on imported feedstock, undermining long-term energy security and industrial optimisation.
